Philly Question

[Mojo Hand]

This is a question for the prognosticators in group.

I have a houseful of out of town guests the week between x-mas and NYE.  I can only get away for one show.  Philly 12/28 or 12/29 works best.

So.....if you had to guess based on history, does either one of those nights have a greater likelihood of being a recreation than the other?

I looked at the history, and I'm not noticing any trends, but there are many of who are far more versed than me.

Getting ready to buy a ticket and figured I would seek-out guesses.  I definitely have a preference for recreations versus originals and have hit a string of originals lately.  Hoping to put my money on the right date.  Go ahead and throw me a guess if you have any thoughts.  No judgments if the guess turns out wrong. 

 

[Greg from Chestertown]

I’ve done a lot of philly shows, except for last year. Basically all of them. My gut tells me they’re usually recreations. Can’t remember any originals but then again, they did last year. Dewey was always recreation first night, original second nite but last year they switched it up. I guess it’s more fluid than ever. You’re guess is as good as mine. I’m going both nites. It’s the best insurance ever.

[Rude]

Best guess is always 2nd night most likely to be an original but you may be talking 60/40. They shake it up. The 28th is 1st show of the run and that could be an original. Flip a coin and go with the night you have less on your plate the following morning   we will be at both of those. Flights and hotels booked and conflicts are no longer conflicting. 

[LIkeEveryOne]

I am not a gambling man

but if you look over the last 2-3 years at the double header concerts it appears heavily weighted to a recreation on the second night 

1st night is 15/9 elective/recreation

2nd night is 10/20 elective/recreation 

That puts the 2nd show at a  50% greater chance of having a recreation

 

But it’s still a 50/50 chance 

they will or won’t play an elective on saturday.  Lol. 

[Greg from Chestertown]

I more interested in the vibe at the electric factory this year. It’s under new ownership. I’m wondering what security will be like. I hope they don’t bust us for smiling on a cloudy day. 

[Rude]

5 hours ago, LIkeEveryOne said:

I am not a gambling man

but if you look over the last 2-3 years at the double header concerts it appears heavily weighted to a recreation on the second night 

1st night is 15/9 elective/recreation

2nd night is 10/20 elective/recreation 

That puts the 2nd show at a  50% greater chance of having a recreation

 

But it’s still a 50/50 chance 

they will or won’t play an elective on saturday.  Lol. 

 

Thats funny because I’d have guessed the opposite as black mountain is almost always 2nd night original but it also ends summer tour. Maybe I catch the end of tour a lot so my thinking is skewed. Thanks for doing the legwork!!

 

the only weird part is you show 24 1st night shows and 30 2nd night shows

4 hours ago, Greg from Chestertown said:

I more interested in the vibe at the electric factory this year. It’s under new ownership. I’m wondering what security will be like. I hope they don’t bust us for smiling on a cloudy day. 

 

Just be creative and there are never issues. Vape. No fire and you are coo. 

[Greg from Chestertown]

I guess if you go far enough back, they only played one night? Not sure, it’s been a while and I am going by memory (that’s funny) not looking it up.

[Tea]

17 hours ago, LIkeEveryOne said:

I am not a gambling man

but if you look over the last 2-3 years at the double header concerts it appears heavily weighted to a recreation on the second night 

1st night is 15/9 elective/recreation

2nd night is 10/20 elective/recreation 

That puts the 2nd show at a  50% greater chance of having a recreation

 

But it’s still a 50/50 chance 

they will or won’t play an elective on saturday.  Lol. 

Quality Analysis!

[LIkeEveryOne]

Let me double check my #’s lol

i was in my car doing the tally on a grocery receipt while at stop lights . 

be back in 10 minutes 

[LIkeEveryOne]

The second show on double headers statistically favors recreations . 

isnt this where I add my disclaimer:

past results are no indication of future returns 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by LIkeEveryOne

[Rude]

So the last 3 double deckers ended with originals but the previous 6 ended recreations. If we keep going back I’m sure an exact pattern will occur. Let me run everything through my cray supercomputer and I’ll spit out the setlists for next tour.  Cant wait for the low spark bust out in Philly lol. The gf being of another generation is unfamiliar with traffic so had to play 20 songs for her yesterday. It’s been 20yrs since I dug deep with traffic and it brought back memories of Lexington in my early 20s. I also realized I knew almost no lyrics from low spark. Better get more familiar 😂

[chuckvegas]

“I also realized I knew almost no lyrics from low spark.”

 

Given how much Tea and I bandy them about, with backup from Huck and others, how is that possible? But don’t worry too much, it’ll happen to you.

[Rude]

Almost none is an over exaggeration but I’d guess less than half I knew correctly. Some o realized I’ve been singing wrong probably like many deadheads did before internet and box of rain. How did we ever answer those questions?  What was life like before internet. It’s semi mind blowing and likely not even a thought in mind of an 19yr old.  

[chuckvegas]

Well, we were children once playing with toys.

[Rude]

Life has ceased to be simple.  We werent genetically wired to be interconnected to the world.  Just wait 50 years when the entire species is linked by implants.  They will talk about how simple life was when we just had to deal with group messages and texts.

[chuckvegas]

Spirit is something that no one destroys.

[Greg from Chestertown]

And the man in the suit has bought a new car on the profit he’s made on your dreams.

[Tea]

.

[Mojo Hand]

On ‎12‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 5:40 PM, LIkeEveryOne said:

I am not a gambling man

but if you look over the last 2-3 years at the double header concerts it appears heavily weighted to a recreation on the second night 

1st night is 15/9 elective/recreation

2nd night is 10/20 elective/recreation 

That puts the 2nd show at a  50% greater chance of having a recreation

 

But it’s still a 50/50 chance 

they will or won’t play an elective on saturday.  Lol. 

Good stuff.  Much appreciated.  You must be a statistician.

[Tea]

Here's another analytical tool for your consideration:

 

 

[Mango]

I don't believe there is a consistent pattern. Just when you think it's one thing, they do the opposite. Kuddos to Eaton for keeping us on our toes. If there as a code to be cracked, we would have cracked it.

 

Additionally, for the record, BM last year was a 77 second night and Elective first.

 

DSO hasn't recreated a NYE show on NYE since 2014 when they did 84 I think? Personally I'd much rather an elective.

 

My fav NYE shows over the years have been....09 Mattson's first NYE, utter psychedelic meltdown and a forum family private dance party in an obscure balcony of the Ram's Head

 

2013 in Long Island. Great Elective with an epic dance party in the back balcony.

 

2015 at Efactory. maybe one of the greatest shows I've seen period. Mostly early style elective, acoustic first set.

 

2017, last year, was really great too. Another Elective.

 

But I'm intentionally missing NYE this year for the first time since Denver 06. Hanging out home with Friends instead. If i had to guess, i'd say in philly will be one Elective and one recreation, with the Elective highlighting songs of the Recreation's era that weren't played. Elective first, then a late 80s.

 

Looking forward to these shows!

[chuckvegas]

That Ram's Head forum family dance party was a memorable evening! Coming hard on the heels of JK's departure the band gave us what we needed. If it wasn't the breakout of "Cold Jordan" it was mighty close. That was some sacred material.

 

And the Fox Theater '06 with the triumphant Terrapin Nation set and the two huge DSO elective sets was quite the night. It may be time for them to start considering recreating electives.