College football

[Rude]

West Virginia kept subbing players which made the refs let Texas slowly sub in players as well not letting them snap it. Total bonehead move.....until that throw lol. 

[bs69]

I'm starting to get concerned with this committee. The top five are obvious choices but I fail to see how Oklahoma keeps getting a pass for their performances. I also fail to see how LSU and Florida keep getting ranked as high as they are,  it's a pretty mediocre crop of teams if Florida is 13th best. 

[Rude]

I sent this to some friends this weekend 

 

In offensive and defensive efficiency in the espn FPI metric

 

Notre Dame 23rd and 15th
Georgia 3rd and 5th
Clemson 6th and 1st
Bama 1st and 2nd
Michigan 8th and 3rd

 

Which team doesn't belong? The true top 4 are all top 5 in defensive efficiency and top 10 in offensive efficiency. Wow. Has that ever happened. The other top 5 def school is mich state which has an 87th offensive rank. 

 

Let’s all hope bama beats Georgia to avoid something bad. Honestly I think regardless of Georgia bama result if Michigan wins out, Georgia has to be excluded even if they beat bama in sec champ. It’s gonna be a mess if it’s a super close Georgia win. Bama in essence will have to play the 5,4 and 2 and win all 3 games to be the champs. Ouch. 

[DesertDead]

On 11/19/2018 at 7:40 PM, Rude said:

I sent this to some friends this weekend 

 

In offensive and defensive efficiency in the espn FPI metric

 

Notre Dame 23rd and 15th
Georgia 3rd and 5th
Clemson 6th and 1st
Bama 1st and 2nd
Michigan 8th and 3rd

 

Which team doesn't belong? The true top 4 are all top 5 in defensive efficiency and top 10 in offensive efficiency. Wow. Has that ever happened. The other top 5 def school is mich state which has an 87th offensive rank. 

 

Let’s all hope bama beats Georgia to avoid something bad. Honestly I think regardless of Georgia bama result if Michigan wins out, Georgia has to be excluded even if they beat bama in sec champ. It’s gonna be a mess if it’s a super close Georgia win. Bama in essence will have to play the 5,4 and 2 and win all 3 games to be the champs. Ouch. 

 

This is fantasy, hahaha.

 

ND beat the shit out of Michigan.  The game wasn’t close.  So if you watch ND play this year and don’t think they’re a top 4 team, then that says more about your ability to analyze CFB than it does about the Irish.

 

 

I can’t see UGA pulling the upset.  I can see Ohio State doing it, though.  If aOSU wins out, will they make the Playoffs, or will OU hold them off?  UCF?

 

Fun stuff.

[Rude]

Michigan was no where near where they are now. By saying your 1st game determines your season, really means perfection is required and bama winning all games by 20+ is the only perfect team. Every one of the 4 teams I believe deserve it would be a minimum of 6pt favs over Notre Dame. Bama and Clemson would be 14pt favs. Georgia and Michigan 6pt favs. 

I can’t see Ohio state beating Michigan. Nothing osu has done in the last 5 games has shown they can stay within 14 of Michigan. Osu’s Defensive coordinator should be fired today. Nfl talent out the ass and they are a hot mess. Having an Oklahoma defense without an Oklahoma offense is Ohio state atm. I’ve called on this board for urban meter to be fired for 2 years.  Anyone watching osu can see that they are severely underperforming the past 2 years and that’s all on urban. Start with the post championship team. Zeke and one of the biggest nfl classes ever took a dump. How can you have one of the best assemblage of players in history and have that season. Osu should have gone b2b. Winning the 1st was tough and required some luck. But everyone returned. The next year they were horrible. Just having zeke and a pro o-line is enough to win the conference. 

 

Michigan by 24. 

[Rude]

Notre dames bad wins

 

Ball state by 8

vandy by 5

44-22 vs a bad navy team

nortgwestern by 10

 

Michigan(4th fpi), Pittsburg (48th in fpi), Syracuse (41st fpi), Stanford(21st fpi), northwestern (40th fpi)

 

Bama beat by 20+ the 8,14,16,19th teams and now plays the 18th and 3rd fpi.  6 top 20 fpi teams on their schedule. 

 

Michigan lost to 6th fpi and beat the 9th 12th 25th and plays the 10th(early season dominance has kept osus average up)next week. It’s not much better but the more true top 20 teams you play the more shots to lose. That will be 4 top 12 matchups for Michigan vs only 1 top 20 for Notre Dame. My issue is playoff teams don’t beat ball state and vamdy and Pitt and northwestern all by single digits and 3 were 1 score games. 

 

The playoff is flawed. I’d like to see in essence a 2nd bowl game. All D1 teams have an end of season open game. Top 8 have the start of the playoff and the rest get matched up against each other on a power basis. Every other year you get the home game and you match up everyone within 4 power slots of each other based on who is due the home or away game. Week 11 becomes the rivalry week and then conference champ then matchup game. Since everyone will get one of those, everyone eliminates 1 non con game. To make up for the lost revenue of not every year that home game, the tickets will naturally be more expensive with the intriguing matchups 

 

 

[DesertDead]

You lost me at “bad wins”.  Going undefeated is extremely difficult, bro.  It doesn’t happen a lot.

 

And if you’re so sure of all of these outcomes and scenarios, then why don’t your predictions come true more often?  I bet Purdue is glad they didn’t listen to your prediction about the Ohio State game this season.  

 

Mark me in the column for those who are happy that we go ahead and play the games to see who is best.

 

[Rude]

I did call Purdue the best 1-3 team in the country early on 

UCF Is also undefeated. 

 

[Rude]

Going undefeated is not hard. Boise used to do it. UCF did it last 2 years. Iowa did it regular season. It’s easy if u play 1 top 20 (using computer metrics). Notre Dame isn’t 12-0 vs LSU’s schedule so to compare teams you can’t compare an LSU who played 7 top 20 teams to a team who played 1 using just record.  It’s why Michigan state got beaten 40-0 by bama a few years ago using record when they were 20th in fpi. Going undefeated in the NFL is the biggest accomplishment as every team has similar talent. But you will get your wish and get in the playoff vs Clemson. They could win it all. Notre Dame had a great season no doubt but I don’t think they are a top 4 team.  

 

Wtf is up with Ohio state. They have been hot garbage lately and besides 5-6 complete defensive breakdowns they have been dominant. Who knew they had it in them. Well I knew they had talent only matched by Alabama and Georgia, but urban Meyer has been out to lunch getting this team ready. 

[DesertDead]

There’s an awful lot going on in this ^^^ post, RD.

 

I reckon that for the moment we’ll just have to agree that by any impactful metric,

Notre Dame>Michigan in 2018 for American football.

 

 

Enjoy your day!

[bs69]

Buckeyes are finally getting healthy on defense,  keep it rolling next week and we'll see you in the playoffs. If the committee keeps Oklahoma ahead of them this week something is wrong. The refs gifted them their 3 point win at WV last night. 

[Rude]

6 hours ago, bs69 said:

Buckeyes are finally getting healthy on defense,  keep it rolling next week and we'll see you in the playoffs. If the committee keeps Oklahoma ahead of them this week something is wrong. The refs gifted them their 3 point win at WV last night. 

 

To have a shot, you have to have a win by bama. A loss by bama and we get the 2 sec teams in again. Bamas getting in regardless after winning every regular season game by 22+ which hasn’t happened since 1888. Bama would knock someone out. Since Notre Dame doesn’t have a championship, bamas regular season would be compared to theirs and bama would have to trump that. I also saw some commentary that has Notre Dame out of the playoffs with bama Clemson osu and Oklahoma. 

 

On another note I hope you guys got to see the 7 OT LSU @ A&M game. 

 

LSUs cosch got a Gatorade bath after intercepting with a few seconds late but the bad snap caused A&Ms qb to touch his knee before he threw which led to the overturning of the int which no one saw b4 the replay. Then a spike with no time but that was overturned b/c there was 1/2 sec left that led to a 20yd td pass to go to OT. So many tds and 2-pt conversions. A&M could have won with a td on 1sr and goal at the 1 but LSU stuffed them in ot 1. After that it was TD after td and 2pt after 2 pt. A&M’s top WR Kendrick Rodgers made insane catch after catch. Best hands in college and strong like bull. And then after a pass interference and a personal foul on A&Ms 2pt attempt in ot7 getting them to 1 foot line lookinj like it would be over they false started and it’s lookinj like ot8 but nope. No way to have guessed what would have happened from 1min left in game through 7OTs. Everything was unexpected. Wished it never ended. Highest scoring game ever in sec conference history. Most plays ever run by A&M in their 130 year history. Players were gassed but made plays. Find the replay and just watch 2:00 left in q4 through the finish. Just thinking back about all the big stops and replays and huge 4th down conversions and no time left plays is mind boggling and this wasn’t inept offenses or defenses. Big plays made on both sides of the ball. 5 hour game. 74-72 final after finishing 31-31 lol. 

[acududeman]

74-72 ??   That's a typical final hoops score!.....crazy

[DesertDead]

18 hours ago, bs69 said:

Buckeyes are finally getting healthy on defense,  keep it rolling next week and we'll see you in the playoffs. If the committee keeps Oklahoma ahead of them this week something is wrong. The refs gifted them their 3 point win at WV last night. 

 

The subjectivity can be a challenge when it doesn’t align with our fandom and/or point of view.  But today we have UGA up to 4, OU to 5, and OSU to 6.  

 

OU has a narrow loss to a good Texas team.  OSU has a terrible loss to a not as good Purdue team.  So all other things aside, if you compare records and the one losses, it is perceived that OU is better.

 

Anyway, it is essentially a beauty contest when comparing like things.  I think the Committee will have a difficult time claiming objectivity and fairness if they were to move Ohio State above OU if both teams win this week.  OU has the ability to redeem their sole loss, to boot.  

 

If Alabama beats UGA, I expect the following:

 

1.  Alabama

2.  Clemson

3.  Notre Dame

4.  Oklahoma

5.  Ohio State

6.  Georgia

 

It sure is interesting, and a fun debate for those of us who love CFB!  

[Rude]

Picking osu vs Oklahoma is too hard. Both have had horrible defenses. Osus is a better of the bad defenses but Oklahoma is a better of 2 good offenses. Osu had the worst loss and with even an average pass by Maryland on the 2pt conv, osu isn’t even in the discussion. Also the big ten may have had their worst year in the last 10 which doesn’t help osu and their performance against the spread vs the dregs is reason to fire Meyer. Then you have an Oklahoma defense that could be the worst in power 5. Could they stop Tua on 1 drive?  That’s questionable. But money is a factor no matter what they say to the contrary and bama vs Ohio state is a monster money battle. Everyone wants to see that game that’s not in the state of Oklahoma. Osu also has much more defensive potential. They are the poorest coached defense I can ever remember from Ohio state with the talent that’s there. There’s no excuse for that Maryland game and Maryland did it on the ground. Let that sink in. This wasn’t some ultra hot passer like when Deshaun Watson put up big yards on bama. This was runs up the gut vs a team with talent 2nd only to Georgia and bama. I’d like this to play out how it’s expected and get the bama osu game. Too bad there can’t be a Clemson Georgia game too. How good would that be. Georgia is clearly a better team than Notre Dame and osu but they have to play bama. Unfortunately Georgia battled a tested LSU team and lost and Notre Dame played a historically down schedule (not their fault that Stanford USC and others were dog turds this year, but just like the nfl if you play other top teams you will get losses and Notre Dame only had 1 top 20 fpi game this year while Michigan was 2-2 in their top 20 ones. 

[DesertDead]

Sounds like someone is a fan of expanding the playoffs to additional teams/games.

 

I get the impression that you are an SEC fan, RD?  Perhaps another way to look at it is that their regular season, conference play is like a long playoff, during which they determine who will play the rest of the country in another playoff.

 

That’s the system that they agreed to, for now.

 

UCF did, too, but they tried to argue it and claim their own MNC last year because they didn’t like the outcome.  Nick Saban and I encourage them to file that under “too bad”.

 

 

So UGA could get to play Clemson as you so desire, they just have to actually beat Alabama to do so.  Seems fair to me.

[bs69]

1 hour ago, Rude said:

Picking osu vs Oklahoma is too hard. Both have had horrible defenses. Osus is a better of the bad defenses but Oklahoma is a better of 2 good offenses. Osu had the worst loss and with even an average pass by Maryland on the 2pt conv, osu isn’t even in the discussion. Also the big ten may have had their worst year in the last 10 which doesn’t help osu and their performance against the spread vs the dregs is reason to fire Meyer. Then you have an Oklahoma defense that could be the worst in power 5. Could they stop Tua on 1 drive?  That’s questionable. But money is a factor no matter what they say to the contrary and bama vs Ohio state is a monster money battle. Everyone wants to see that game that’s not in the state of Oklahoma. Osu also has much more defensive potential. They are the poorest coached defense I can ever remember from Ohio state with the talent that’s there. There’s no excuse for that Maryland game and Maryland did it on the ground. Let that sink in. This wasn’t some ultra hot passer like when Deshaun Watson put up big yards on bama. This was runs up the gut vs a team with talent 2nd only to Georgia and bama. I’d like this to play out how it’s expected and get the bama osu game. Too bad there can’t be a Clemson Georgia game too. How good would that be. Georgia is clearly a better team than Notre Dame and osu but they have to play bama. Unfortunately Georgia battled a tested LSU team and lost and Notre Dame played a historically down schedule (not their fault that Stanford USC and others were dog turds this year, but just like the nfl if you play other top teams you will get losses and Notre Dame only had 1 top 20 fpi game this year while Michigan was 2-2 in their top 20 ones. 

You are correct in that Ohio State needs Alabama to win next week. I have no doubt that they should probably take Alabama with a loss in the championship game with Georgia over the Buckeyes as long as it is a reasonably close game. 

There is also no doubt that the Buckeyes loss to Purdue is a worse loss than Oklahoma's loss to Texas. However,  Ohio state has better wins with the wins at Penn St. and over Michigan. 

It also amazes me how the Maryland scare keeps coming up but nobody mentions the Oklahoma escape at home against Oklahoma state?  Maryland did also beat Texas, they were a team with talent that was real Jekyll and Hyde with all of the off field distractions. 

Rude,  I hung in through the 2nd OT last night but couldn't make it any further. I felt real bad for Ed O soaked in Gatorade through multiple overtimes and then losing. 

[DesertDead]

A very interesting fact is that both OU and OSU’s AD’s are on the Selection Committee this year.

 

If Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all win next week, then it will come down to OU vs. Ohio State for the 4th slot.  I wonder if they recuse themselves or state their cases?

 

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2017/10/16/selection-committee.aspx

[bs69]

18 minutes ago, DesertDead said:

A very interesting fact is that both OU and OSU’s AD’s are on the Selection Committee this year.

 

If Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all win next week, then it will come down to OU vs. Ohio State for the 4th slot.  I wonder if they recuse themselves or state their cases?

 

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2017/10/16/selection-committee.aspx

Both would have to recuse themselves. Another interesting thought,  does UCF have a chance if Alabama, Texas and Northwestern all win next week? Any word on Milton? Is he finished for the year or possibly back for a bowl game?

[DesertDead]

Milton had surgery and is out for the remainder of this season.

[bs69]

19 minutes ago, DesertDead said:

Milton had surgery and is out for the remainder of this season.

That sucks for him/ them,  the kid can play some ball 

[Rude]

2 hours ago, bs69 said:

Both would have to recuse themselves. Another interesting thought,  does UCF have a chance if Alabama, Texas and Northwestern all win next week? Any word on Milton? Is he finished for the year or possibly back for a bowl game?

 

I see 0 scenarios that they get in. The s&p+ sos showed that the average top 5 team in the country would be 11.5-.5 vs their schedule. Compare that to the average top 5 would be 9.6-2.4 record vs LSU’s schedule and that’s also skewed lower because of Clemson and bamas dominance. Remove them and the average record vs LSUs 3rd hardest schedule in the country for the 3-5th team would be 9-3. I’d guess most of the top 10 and half of the real top 25 would be undefeated vs UCF’s schedule. And they were not convincing in their “hard” games. They don’t have the talent to compete week after week vs more talented teams and come out with only 1 loss. It’s not happening. They have had a great season but they aren’t playoff material. It would be like Alabama vs Oakland raiders and they are the Alabama. On that note it would be fun to see how bad Bama would beat them. 

 

Amd no one recuses themselves. They all make the decision together. This situation has happened before. The osu/our decision will be brutal unless Georgia beats bama and then it’s moot. Also Texas was not good early on when Maryland beat them. Maryland lost to temple by a ton the week after I believe. I don’t know who I’d choose. Osu’s failure to show up vs Purdue Minnesota Nebraska Indiana and Michigan state all in a row didn’t help them. That’s 0 top 40 fpi teams in a 5 week span and they were hot garbage. Plus the bad loss and the northwestern champ game won’t help their cause. I see Oklahoma getting in because of a better champ game.  But it’s prettu much a toss up. Someone said Oklahoma’s defense precludes them from being invited. Unfortunately Georgia has bama because as of now there’s no dispute on who gets in. The top 4 are pretty clear as of week 13. 

[DesertDead]

After this exchange I was told elsewhere that they do indeed recuse themselves.  They leave the room when their teams are discussed.  I’ll see if I can track down a link.

 

 

And, yeah, that completely blows for that Milton guy.  He is a great talent and UCF is some storyline.  I wonder how they’ll be without him?

[acududeman]

6 hours ago, DesertDead said:

Milton had surgery and is out for the remainder of this season.

 

Apparently it was one of those gnarly and gruesome leg injuries...….I'll never forget seeing Marcus Lattimore's (Gamecock) dislocated knee injury go down.

[bs69]

23 hours ago, Rude said:

 

I see 0 scenarios that they get in. The s&p+ sos showed that the average top 5 team in the country would be 11.5-.5 vs their schedule. Compare that to the average top 5 would be 9.6-2.4 record vs LSU’s schedule and that’s also skewed lower because of Clemson and bamas dominance. Remove them and the average record vs LSUs 3rd hardest schedule in the country for the 3-5th team would be 9-3. I’d guess most of the top 10 and half of the real top 25 would be undefeated vs UCF’s schedule. And they were not convincing in their “hard” games. They don’t have the talent to compete week after week vs more talented teams and come out with only 1 loss. It’s not happening. They have had a great season but they aren’t playoff material. It would be like Alabama vs Oakland raiders and they are the Alabama. On that note it would be fun to see how bad Bama would beat them. 

 

Amd no one recuses themselves. They all make the decision together. This situation has happened before. The osu/our decision will be brutal unless Georgia beats bama and then it’s moot. Also Texas was not good early on when Maryland beat them. Maryland lost to temple by a ton the week after I believe. I don’t know who I’d choose. Osu’s failure to show up vs Purdue Minnesota Nebraska Indiana and Michigan state all in a row didn’t help them. That’s 0 top 40 fpi teams in a 5 week span and they were hot garbage. Plus the bad loss and the northwestern champ game won’t help their cause. I see Oklahoma getting in because of a better champ game.  But it’s prettu much a toss up. Someone said Oklahoma’s defense precludes them from being invited. Unfortunately Georgia has bama because as of now there’s no dispute on who gets in. The top 4 are pretty clear as of week 13. 

I fail to see the argument against UCF in your stats, if the average top 5 team would be 11.5-.5 against their schedule how do you argue against them when they are 12-0 against that schedule? I get that a team in their situation has to go undefeated and play at least a decent schedule,  but I don't think 2-3 loss teams should be ahead of them just because they play a power 5 schedule. I'm not arguing that they should be in this year given their schedule but I don't think it should be automatic that a group of five team gets left out. If the American and Mountain West were smart,  they would leave a week open about 2/3 of the way through the season and match up their better teams for another strong game. If UCF were able to add a win against Fresno, Boise or Utah St. They would be in a better position.  I'm a Cincinnati grad and would like to at least have a glimmer of hope. We're have a good team ( not close to playoff worthy) this year but were playing a roster of mainly freshman and sophomores. We should be better next year and play a schedule that includes a home game against UCLA (who should be much improved in year 2 with Chip  Kelly) and a road game at Ohio State along with our annual game with Miami of Ohio.  If we could add a game against one of the top Mountain West teams to those three in our non conference instead of an FCS team,  I think that would give us the schedule to go to the playoff if we went undefeated.